Ern's Edge 
NFL Forecasting Blog

<p>Most NFL predictions fail for a simple reason: they treat the game as a yes-or-no outcome instead of a range of likely outcomes. Win probability fixes that

<p>Win probability has become one of the clearest ways to understand the flow of an NFL game, yet it is also one of the easiest numbers to misuse. A percentage

<p>Win probability is one of the clearest ways to understand what a football forecast is really saying. Instead of reducing a matchup to a simple pick, it shows

<p>Win probability has become one of the clearest ways to understand why one NFL team is favored over another, but it is often misunderstood as a fixed answer

<p>Most NFL conversations begin with a simple question: who is going to win? But the answer often gets distorted by two very different forces. One is win